“The unipolar model of the world is over”, declared Vladimir Putin last week.
“The global picture has completely changed”.
The
St Petersburg International Economic Forum was less well-attended than
usual. During previous visits to this annual “Russian Davos”, now in its
18th year, I’ve regularly been mown down by American and West European
CEOs, as they’ve purposefully stomped down carpet-tiled corridors, their
retinue of aides and cameras in tow.
This
year, while plenty of Western executives did make the annual trek to
Russia’s beautiful second city, keen to sell more cars, soap powder and
financial services in Europe’s most valuable consumer market, the
corridors were safer. Many of the top names stayed away.
The
sanctions imposed on Russia in response to events in Ukraine put
Western business leaders under pressure. Fearing unsavoury headlines,
and often responding to specific government requests, some of our
best-known corporate pole-climbers gave “Putin’s vanity summit” a miss.
Such
absences, along with the UK’s local and European election shenanigans,
meant the St Petersburg Forum generated less comment than usual. Yet I’d
say this year’s event provided confirmation of one of the most
important pieces of news to emerge from Russia since the Soviet Union
was dissolved a quarter of a century ago.
I’m
referring to the $400bn (£237bn) deal struck between Moscow and
Beijing, under which Russia will supply 38bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas
to China over 30 years from 2018. Before that happens, the two sides are
to share the estimated $77bn cost of building the new “Power of
Siberia” pipeline, stretching from Eastern Siberia to China’s populous
north-east.
While that will already amount
to the world’s biggest construction project, this joint initiative could
yet see a second pipeline built to the Western Provinces of the
People’s Republic, expanding Russia’s annual Chinese gas sale to 61bcm.
This
deal has been a long time coming. Last spring, after a decade of
negotiation, state-run energy giants Gazprom and CNPC signed a
memorandum of understanding regarding the initial pipeline route.
Putin’s visit to China last week, followed by events in St Petersburg,
cemented the high politics of the tie-up.
Some
say the Ukrainian crisis has forced an “isolated” Russia to do this
China deal now, in a scramble for allies. Others judge that Beijing,
showing its disapproval of Western adventurism and lingering Cold War
attitudes, is deliberately standing next to Moscow in a joint display of
strength. Whichever way you spin it, the outcome is the same. Russia,
source of a third of all natural gas used in Western Europe, will soon
have a major alternative market for its vast exports. And that can only
put upward pressure on both wholesale and retail gas prices.
Enemies
for much of the Cold War, Russia and China are now building serious
commercial ties across their 2,700-mile border. Under-reported in the
West, this fast-strengthening relationship will do much to shape the
world economy in the years and decades to come.
As
recently as 2003, cross-border trade between Russia and China amounted
to just $12bn. Over the last decade, that’s expanded more than
seven-fold, reaching $90bn last year. Both sides recognise the synergies
between the world’s largest energy exporter and the world’s most
populous nation and biggest manufacturer.
In
2009, Russia’s oil giant Rosneft secured a $25bn oil swap contract with
China. Last year, that relationship deepened, after Rosneft agreed to
double oil supplies to China in a deal valued at a colossal $270bn. This
reflected Russia’s plan to shift its focus away from saturated and
crisis-ridden European energy markets and towards Asia — a plan well in
train years before recent events in Ukraine.
Under
the latest oil agreement, Russia pumps an extra 300,000 barrels to
China daily for the next 25 years, doubling the crude it already sells
to the energy-hungry People’s Republic. The speed of change in the
direction of Russia’s oil exports has been stark. Russia now sends about
750,000 barrels a day to Asia, a fifth of the oil it sells abroad,
helped by the East Siberia Pacific Ocean crude pipeline, linking Russia
to China, which opened in 2010....
Tsim Sha Tsui. On Wednesday, he had five of the cases couriered to his buyer’s Hung Hom office.
Much of the strong demand for commercial real estate in Tokyo has been driven by an increase in international investment, which surged by more than 70 percent year-over-year, catapulting Tokyo past both New York and London. Such growth is even more surprising considering that Tokyo has endured more than 20 years of continual price declines since a bubble collapse in the early 1990s. Prices finally began to increase in 2013 and have been further buoyed by a pro-growth economic program instituted by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. As prices continue to rise in Tokyo, an increasing number of investors are turning their attention beyond the capital to seek out viable property investments. Higher prices have also encouraged some occupants to purchase the properties they previously rented.
By comparison, the commercial real estate market in the United States has made significant strides toward recovery in the last year. According to data released by CoStar Group, commercial real estate represents $12 billion of the U.S. economy. Market value declined by 25 percent during the financial crisis as many businesses shut their doors, leaving office spaces empty. Recently, however, the demand for commercial real estate in the United States has strengthened and prices are finally returning, but have not yet managed to attain the same level of activity as that of Japan.
So, what can U.S. investors learn from the Japanese commercial real estate market?
With financial pundits predicting that commercial real estate recovery will continue to accelerate in 2014, investors should be prepared to jump ahead of the fray or be caught unaware. As prices continue to rebound, investors who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how far the market will drop before jumping in should note that the time to take action could be now. While distressed properties may still remain on the market, they will likely become increasingly fewer.
Foreign investment in commercial real estate is already on the rise in the United States, as foreign investors recognize the significant potential that remains untapped in the U.S. market. This is particularly true as a number of countries around the world face record inflation. While countries such as Russia, Japan, and China have traditionally had an interest in commercial real estate investments in the U.S., even the Israelis are now increasingly looking toward the U.S., with Israel becoming the third-largest foreign investor in American commercial real estate in 2013.
With foreign investment in U.S. commercial real estate on the rise and prices poised to continue increasing throughout the remainder of the year, the United States could be in position to soon overtake Tokyo. Investors would do well to sit up and pay attention today. 
